Home Forex Markets Bitcoin (BTC): Entering Low Volatility, Outlook Continues to Be Downward

Bitcoin (BTC): Entering Low Volatility, Outlook Continues to Be Downward

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Bitcoin (BTC): Entering Low Volatility, Outlook Continues to Be Downward


Bitcoin (BTC) still cannot enjoy the “dividend” of the weakening of the US dollar and the rising risk appetite of traditional financial markets, and the trend has once again entered a state of extremely low volatility. Technically, Bitcoin (BTC) may extend its sideways move, setting itself up for further weakness.

Bitcoin (BTC) Falters as Dollar Continues to Weaken

Minutes from last week’s Federal Reserve meeting showed that most officials believed monetary policy was close to a sufficiently restrictive level that a slowdown in rate hikes might be appropriate. The minutes further strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rate hikes, and the market’s mainstream expectation for a rate hike at the next meeting is 50 basis points.

Affected by this, the U.S. dollar weakened again last week, and the U.S. dollar index fell 0.85% for the week, erasing the previous week’s rebound and correction efforts. At the same time, U.S. stocks continued their rally last week, with the S&P 500 up 1.53%, reflecting continued improvement in risk appetite in traditional financial markets. However, this favorable environment still failed to produce a significant rebound for Bitcoin (BTC), which rose only 1% and fell into a state of low volatility for the second consecutive week.

The impact of the FTX collapse on the entire cryptocurrency market may take a long time to digest, and it is bringing a series of adverse chain reactions, so the trend of Bitcoin (BTC) may still be fragile. Last week, Genesis, the largest lending institution in the encryption market, was implicated in the bankruptcy of FTX and faced the possibility of filing for bankruptcy. BlockFi, another cryptocurrency lending platform, has stopped users from withdrawing deposits and is considering filing for bankruptcy due to its significant exposure to FTX.

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A review of key market news for cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC):

Bloomberg quoted people familiar with the matter as reporting that Justin Sun spent about US$1 billion to acquire about 60% of Huobi’s equity through Hong Kong asset management company About Capital. According to a report released by Coinbase, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust GBTC holds more than 635,000 Bitcoins (BTC), and Greyscale Ethereum Trust holds more than 3 million ETH. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority released a research report stating that as traditional financial assets provide support for stablecoins, the volatility of stablecoins may spread to the traditional financial sector. Bank of Canada deputy governor Rogers said cryptocurrencies have yet to prove to be a stable store of value or an effective form of payment facilitation. The U.S. state of New York has signed into law a new law imposing a two-year moratorium on new and renewed air permits for fossil fuel power plants used for energy-intensive proof-of-work (PoW) cryptocurrency mining . Russian lawmakers are reportedly working on amendments to launch a national cryptocurrency exchange, and they have the backing of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Russia. At a meeting, the Russian president called for the establishment of an international settlement system based on blockchain and digital currency, independent of banks and third-country intervention.

Bitcoin (BTC) Trend Technical Analysis

The daily chart shows that Bitcoin (BTC) has continued to fluctuate between 15,500-17,000 in the past two weeks, but judging from the larger trend picture, this may just be a rest period before a further decline. If there is a short-term rebound correction, it is expected that resistance such as the 20-day moving average of 16,500 and 17,000 will limit the upside space. On the downside, pay attention to the first-line support of 15,500 at the bottom of the shock range. Once it is effectively broken, it will open up more room for decline. (Follow the author on Twitter @Legen_DailyFX )

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