The December CPI report was in line with market expectations, and even showed a monthly decrease. This also recognizes that the market has begun to consider more seriously the possibility of a rapid decline in inflation and the probability of a soft landing is increasing. So what are the things we need to pay attention to in the upcoming Chinese New Year holidays and opening week?
1. Last week’s market situation and this week’s major events—Taiwan’s New Year holiday for eight days 2. Calendar during the Chinese New Year—housing data, GDP, PCE 3. U.S. stock financial reports during the Chinese New Year—important companies have announced financial reports 4. Analysis and weekly strategies— The market is expected to maintain on the eve of the customs closure, and the US stock earnings report will affect the opening 5. Summary – On the eve of the closure of the customs, continue to be optimistic
1. Last week’s market situation and this week’s major events—Taiwan’s market is closed for eight days during the Chinese New Year
The major events this week are housing data and the start of the Chinese New Year holiday in Taiwan. The following is the list of major events this week:
The last inflation report for 2022 has been released, which is in line with expectations and has a monthly decrease trend. This has gradually reduced inflation concerns, and the attitude of FED officials has become more moderate. Although they still do not consider cutting interest rates, they still insist on at least rising above 5%, but also agreed that this year is mainly to observe the data, to control the market while maintaining high interest rates. The odds of a soft landing also continue to rise. So does this mean that things will be fine in 2023? Perhaps the focus of 2023 will be the next earnings report!
2. Organize the calendar during the Chinese New Year – housing data, GDP, PCE
For the Chinese New Year in Taiwan starting next week, the market will not open until 1/30. And the week of Chinese New Year is also the last announcement period in January in the United States; the week that opened the red market is the employment data for February and the interest rate decision-making meetings of the US FED, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank.
There is no major data release from the second to the fourth day of the new year. Although the U.S. stock market is open normally, at least there is not much interference at the general managerial level, allowing investors to return to their parents’ homes and travel safely. The preliminary value of US GDP on Thursday shows that the country’s economy in 2022 is still resilient, and finally there is the PCE index that the FED cares most about and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index that can understand consumer expectations.
The opening time of the red market is January 30, which is also the first week of February, so many employment data will be released, and it is also the time when the FED’s first FOMC meeting in 2023 will start. The results of the FOMC meeting will be followed by the press conference after the meeting, followed by the results of the interest rate decisions of the UK and the European Central Bank. Although the current market expectation is that the interest rate will be raised by only one yard, and Europe may be more than one yard, but we must be careful of the impact of huge intraday fluctuations. Then comes the first 2023 jobs report for 2023. The market currently expects the labor market to be weaker than in December, but more attention should be paid to the wage growth rate.
It’s just that most of the following economic events have been expected by the market. Whether it is inflation slowing down, employment is still resilient but also declining, the U.S. economy continues to be resilient, central banks will continue to raise interest rates, but the FED may slow down footsteps for follow-up observation. In the next long holiday, the overall economic data will not become the key to market turmoil, what is important is the next earnings week!
3. Compilation of US stock financial report information during the Chinese New Year – Important companies have announced their financial reports
At present, the market has formed a basic consensus, that is, the first half of the year bottomed out, and the second half of the year rebounded. This year, at most, it will only be a slight recession. After the inflation issue is over, the range of further interest rate hikes by various central banks is limited. Regarding the financial report, it is also agreed that there will be a recession. No matter which company it is, the possibility of quarterly decline in Q1 in 2023 is very high. TSMC, which was the first to hold a law conference, also confirmed this view. Although their performance in Q4 of 2022 was better than expected, and their gross profit margin reached a record high of 62.2%, they also predicted that there should be a double-digit recession in Q1 of 2023. .
So which U.S. stocks will start to announce their financial reports next?
Next week is the second batch of important financial companies to announce their financial reports, including Goldman Sachs, which has recently turned to no longer think that Europe and the United States will decline, and Morgan Stanley, which continues to be pessimistic about the broader market. There are also Baoqiao, an important livelihood value stock, and Netflix, an online streaming platform. The financial reports of these two companies and their outlook and financial forecast for 2023 are important forward-looking guidelines for us to observe the consumption prospects of enterprises this year, and also allow us to observe the development of inflation. From the second day of junior high school, there are:
At the beginning, a large number of key companies announced their financial reports, including consumer goods, manufacturing, chip industry, financial consumption, leisure and entertainment, etc. They are also companies that are very important to the broader market. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the news of Tesla, Esmer, and Intel on the fourth and fifth day of the new year. This means that next week’s automotive and semiconductor stocks may be affected by their financial reports and forecasts.
The opening week was the announcement of Apple’s financial report, which is closely related to Taiwan, and Qualcomm’s financial report on the same day. This week, a large number of industrial stocks such as McDonald’s, General Motors, Caterpillar, and medical stocks also reported earnings. Meta is also Wednesday of the week. At the same time, the FED’s FOMC meeting, the European Central Bank meeting and the Bank of England meeting will also be held, followed by the US employment data. Therefore, this week will also be the most influential and volatile week.
So which important company financial reports are worth noting in these three weeks? The following is an important company’s financial report forecast for investors’ reference:
Years ago, we need to pay attention to Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Their views on the financial environment in 2023 and their financial forecasts in a high-interest environment will be very important interest rate guidance. How Baoqiao thinks about inflation in 2023 and whether it will hurt its profits when it falls will be key.
The first batch of important financial reports after the New Year are Johnson & Johnson and Texas Instruments in the third year of junior high school. Johnson & Johnson’s outstanding performance in 2022, whether this is due to inflation, and whether the subsequent decline in inflation may weaken profitability will be the focus of this financial report. How Texas Instruments evaluates the economy and market demand in 2023 can provide a clearer understanding of the expectations and developments related to the overall electronics and semiconductor industries.
The fourth day and the fifth day of the day are the financial reports of Tesla, Esmore and Intel that investors value most. Although TSMC has fully explained their views on 2023 at the conference on January 12, the views of core equipment factories are still very important, because they can understand the overall industry rather than only the views of the top companies. Tesla should pay attention to the expansion of their Texas factory and the impact of sales and price cuts in China, especially the view of the Chinese economy is also worth paying attention to.
IBM and SAP can pay attention to whether their customer demand is stable, or there is a significant decline in expectations, as the basis for most companies to maintain capital investment. As a core IC design company, Intel also manufactures. After the implementation of the U.S. Chip Act and TSMC’s decision to set up a factory in the U.S., whether Intel has relevant views on high-speed computing, servers, and more advanced chips, and whether there is a recovery in replacement demand Point worth noting.
Visa and American Express pay attention to the view of consumption. We should also pay attention to whether there is any change in the consumption behavior of the consumer market during the Black Friday, Christmas, and New Year consumption seasons, and whether there may be further shrinkage in the environment of high inflation and high interest rates.
Looking at the forecast in the above chart, we can find that last year was very favorable for the production and medical stocks, and therefore the strength of the rebound of the Dow Jones Index and the S&P Index is much greater than that of the Nasdaq Index. So how might these companies that performed well last year perform in 2023? Can value stocks still perform well in 2023, or is there really a serious gap in earnings estimates, and actual earnings may not grow at all? How these companies will give their financial forecasts for 2023 will be the key!
4. Analysis and weekly strategy – the market is expected to maintain on the eve of the customs closure, and the US stock earnings report will affect the opening
The year before and after the year are mainly ETF ex-dividends, in addition to Realtek and Chunghwa Telecom’s law talks:
At present, there is indeed a sign that the bad news has been exhausted. After the bad news was confirmed in the first half of the year, TSMC jumped up instead, and the US ADR even rose by 6%. Inflation data in line with expectations and the monthly decrease further convinced the market that inflation is coming to an end and a soft landing is approaching. Therefore, the market is expected to continue in the short term, but during the Chinese New Year period, it is necessary to pay close attention to the financial reports and outlook of US companies. Those who have positions in US stocks need to continue to pay attention.
5. Summary – On the eve of the closure of the customs, continue to be optimistic
I wish everyone a happy Year of the Rabbit! There are many important events worthy of attention after the customs closure, and the US company earnings week is about to start! I wish you all a happy new year! (Weekly analysis of major financial events, go to the extended reading – this week’s breaking news)
Extended recommended reading for US stock investment:
1. What are XLP ETFs?Consumer Staples Leading Stock Industry ETF Public Information Introduction
2. What do you think about US stock chips? What do Berkshire, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and Fisher buy?
3. The first lesson of US stock investment – how to open a US stock account?
4. 2022 General Manager Review & Stock Deposit Performance Backtest Introduction (Community login and test immediately)
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