Home Forex Markets EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell, WTI oil prices fell instead of rising

EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell, WTI oil prices fell instead of rising

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EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell, WTI oil prices fell instead of rising

The weekly inventory data released by the EIA unexpectedly fell, but after the release of the seemingly bullish data, WTI oil prices fell to a fresh intraday low. From a technical point of view, WTI oil prices may continue the volatile decline in the channel, but if there is a break above 104, it will turn to a bullish outlook.

Weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that commercial crude oil inventories fell by 446,000 barrels as of July 15, compared with expectations for an increase of 1.36 million barrels. ), this result is theoretically good news to stimulate WTI oil prices to strengthen. However, the fact is another scene. After the EIA inventory data was released, WTI crude oil prices extended their intraday decline.

In addition to tonight’s inventory data, factors such as the current Beixi No. 1 gas cutoff and increased risk appetite are also support for WTI crude oil prices, but oil prices are still significantly corrected today. On the one hand, it reflects that the short-term weak trend of oil prices is slow for the positive, and on the other hand, the news is not conducive to the continuation of the decline.

In addition, according to the IG customer sentiment report, nearly 54% of retail customers hold a net long position so far, and the ratio of net long to net short is 1.18:1. Most retail traders hold a net long position, suggesting that WIT crude oil prices may fall.

The price trend of crude oil in the first and second quarters can be described as magnificent, so what will happen to oil prices in the third quarter?

Analysis of WTI Crude Oil Price Trend

The four-hour chart shows that the price of WTI crude oil is still running in the downward channel since June, so there is a greater risk of maintaining the downward trend in the channel. If the decline continues, the initial support below will focus on the 95-97 area, and a break below this support area may open up more room for decline. If the rebound is upward, the upper resistance will focus on the 102-104 area. Once the upper rail of the channel is broken above 104, the bearish outlook will be reversed.

EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell, WTI oil prices fell instead of rising

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