With the increased demand for U.S. refined oil products in Europe and Asia, oil prices are still expected to rise further; the market expects U.S. retail sales in April to be slightly higher than the previous value; in addition, the United Kingdom and Australia will announce changes in employment numbers on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively .
Market Outlook this week
All three major U.S. stock indexes posted losses last week, although a rebound on Thursday and Friday saw stocks recover most of the losses that started the week. Although Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell previously said that he would not consider a larger rate hike for the time being, it still does not seem to be able to ensure a soft landing for the economy. The Dow and Nasdaq 100 ended the week down 2.14% and 2.41%, respectively.
The U.S. dollar index fell slightly on Friday, but remained near its highest level since December 2002. The U.S. will release April retail sales data at 20:30 (GMT+08:00) on Tuesday. The market currently expects April retail sales to be 0.8% monthly, higher than the previous value of 0.5%. If the actual value is higher than expected, it will help ease investor concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy.
International oil prices fell first and then rose last week, closing with a longer lower shadow. According to AAA (American Automobile Association), gasoline prices have hit record highs despite a build in crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, which may be related to a surge in demand in Europe and Asia. In fact, inventories of refined products are In view of this, the oil price outlook is still expected to continue to rise.
In currency markets, the pound fell against most currencies last week, with the latest release of weaker-than-expected three-month GDP growth keeping the pound under pressure, extending its downward trend since the Bank of England’s May interest rate decision. The U.K. is due to report the change in employment for February at 14:00 (GMT+08:00) on Tuesday, with an increase of 5,000 jobs expected, according to Bloomberg data.
Further weakening in iron ore prices continues to weigh on the Australian dollar, which has now fallen to the level not seen since June 2020, as the Chinese economy is still reeling from the Covid-19 lockdown measures, resulting in lower demand for metal products from industrial production and further weakness in iron ore prices. lowest point. At 09:30 (GMT+08:00) on Thursday, Australia’s April employment change will be released, and the market is now expecting an increase of 25,000 jobs, up from the previous value of 17,900. A stronger-than-expected data would increase market bets on a rate hike by the RBA.
US dollar, gold and other currencies
(Written by Thomas Westwater, translated by Chris Li)
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