Home Forex Markets NZD/USD trend analysis: The Fed is raising interest rates, and the NZD is expected to gradually rise

NZD/USD trend analysis: The Fed is raising interest rates, and the NZD is expected to gradually rise

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纽元/美元走势分析:美联储加息落地,纽元后市有望逐步走高


NZD, NZD/USD, NZ GDP, Sentiment – Summary

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points this morning, officially starting a new round of interest rate hikes; although New Zealand’s fourth-quarter GDP growth was less than expected, NZD/USD still rose; technically, NZD/USD broke 23.6% Fibonacci The Qi callback level, the market outlook is expected to further test the 200-day moving average.

Asia Pacific Market

Financial markets experienced an extraordinary day, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcing a 25 basis point hike in the federal benchmark interest rate at 02:00 (GMT+08:00) on Thursday, the bank’s first rate hike since 2018 . U.S. stocks and U.S. bond yields recorded gains, with the U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury yield spread further narrowing.

New Zealand this morning announced the fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) annual growth rate and quarterly rate, of which the fourth-quarter GDP growth rate was 3.0% quarter-on-quarter, lower than the expected 3.3%. Although it missed expectations, NZD/USD still rose sharply by 0.76%. The trade data for February, due next week, will be New Zealand’s next economic data to watch.

Yesterday, the Asian stock market staged a major counterattack, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HSI) rising nearly 10%, the largest one-day gain since October 2008. The Hong Kong stock market remains the focus of attention today and is expected to further recover this month’s losses if the upward momentum continues.

NZD/USD technical analysis

NZD/USD stood above the 100-day SMA yesterday and is currently trading around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the January 2022 low/March 2022 high, with the RSI around the midpoint of 50 , the rally has no obvious signs of overbought, if the market outlook is further higher, the bullish target is at the 200-day moving average; if it turns around and falls below the 100-day moving average, the currency pair may conduct a longer consolidation.

NZD/USD daily chart

Chart source: TradingView

(Written by Thomas Westwater, translated by Chris Li)

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