The yen has been depreciating all the way this year (2022). Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot today (8), and he was finally pronounced dead after a few rescues. The impact of the yuan is very small, and the easing is not expected to change in the short term. Looking forward to the market outlook, under the opening of Japan’s borders, the yen is expected to get rid of the decline.
The research team of Yuanta S&P Yen Zheng 2 (00706L-TW) said that the yen has fallen from 115.06 to 136.01 this year, with a total decline of 18%, which is the lowest since the Asian financial crisis in 1998. The main reason for the 137 mark is that the Bank of Japan continues to implement an unlimited monetary easing policy, which is in sharp contrast with the monetary policies of the central banks of other major economies.
However, this week, the yen gradually showed signs of falling and stabilizing. The research team of Yuanta S&P Yen Zheng 2 explained that the main reason is that Japan’s CPI in May was 2.5%, and the core CPI was 2.1%, which was above 2% for two consecutive months. And the highest since 2015. Eiji Maeda, a former director of the Bank of Japan, said that if the economy is strong, prices rise further, and salary increases are expected to climb, the Bank of Japan may “slightly revise” monetary policy in the second half of this year (October 2022-March 2023).
The Yuanta S&P Yen Zheng 2 research team pointed out that, observing CFTC large-scale speculative traders, the net short position of the yen has dropped from 100,000 in March this year to 50,000, and the Japanese economy is expected to benefit from the opening of the border. After the retaliatory tourism boom, the next is expected to see the yen out of the decline.