Gold price forecast and gold price technical analysis: The situation in Ukraine is expected to ease, and gold prices are stabilizing after falling back; as sanctions force Russia to negotiate, everyone is paying attention to the talks between Biden and Xi; gold prices fall below $1,800 an ounce, which will trigger a new gold price downtrend.
Gold prices hit since last week2000Dollar/After falling sharply after the high above the ounce, gold prices have stabilized slightly. The ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine appears to be the catalyst driving gold prices, whose decline may have echoed broad hopes for a de-escalation after cautious supportive remarks from Moscow and Kyiv.
It is worth noting that, at the same time, the spread between Brent crude oil futures in the first and second months has also narrowed. This suggests that market concerns about supply disruptions have eased. The spread widened sharply after the conflict, as Russia is the world’s largest energy exporter.
this weekFOMCThe FOMC’s monetary policy statement does not appear to have had much of an impact on gold price action, although gold prices are generally very sensitive to interest rate trends.The market widely expects the Fed to raise interest rates251 basis point, but this does not appear to have materially changed investor interest in alternatives to fiat currencies such as gold.
useTradingViewCreated gold price chart
Going forward, news related to Ukraine is likely to remain an area of focus. If the ceasefire talks make some progress, gold could face fresh selling pressure.President Joe·Signs of an understanding between Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping during talks later today could also weaken gold prices.
China has been reluctant to join the West in confronting Russia, but in recent weeks leading Chinese officials have adopted a conciliatory tone to the U.S. rhetoric, despite calls for a diplomatic solution to the crisis. That means Beijing could be persuaded to refuse to allow Moscow to bypass sanctions.
this may give the russian presidentVladimir PutinPutin puts more pressure on him to come to the negotiating table in earnest, an outcome that the market may accept.If the price of gold falls below the1908.20support, and may fall further1870.75.However, for gold to establish a long-term downtrend, it would need to fall to1800Dollar/ounces or less.
Conversely, if there is no progress, gold could try a bigger rally.Gold is at resistance1965.55If the top stabilizes, it seems likely to challenge again2000Dollar/Create conditions above the ounce mark.If the gold price can break above the shock high in the market outlook2009.17may lock the next target at2040.16of50%Fibonacci extension levels.
(Written by Ilya Spivak, translated by Eunice Li)
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