Home Forex Markets The international oil price staged a major comeback, but the oil supply questioned the resilience of the crude oil rally, why did the oil price inevitably fall

The international oil price staged a major comeback, but the oil supply questioned the resilience of the crude oil rally, why did the oil price inevitably fall

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International oil prices, crude oil, WTI crude oil, oil supply and demand, crude oil price forecasts and analysis: When the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations on Thursday had little success, the market turned its attention to the call between Xi and Xi; international oil prices staged a bear market rebound. Anti-kill, but the stamina of the rally is questioned; whether WTI crude oil can hold the important psychological roll of $100 has attracted much attention.

Oil prices rebounded amid rising supply and demand concerns

Crude oil traders have endured a week of ups and downs on a lot of news about Russia-Ukraine talks this week, and it looks like they will continue to be caught up in the volatility sparked by the series of news heading into the weekend. The Kremla made it clear on Thursday that reports of significant progress in Russia-Ukraine talks were “mistaken”. Oil prices appeared to have staged a major comeback yesterday in response to concerns about disruptions to Russia’s energy supply, with crude oil prices rising as much as 9.04%.

However, in addition to benefiting from concerns about oil supply, this impressive rebound in oil prices also comes from the market’s interpretation that oil demand may return.Chinese President Xi JinpingHe said that it is necessary to be scientifically accurate, dynamically cleared, and to curb the spread of the new crown epidemic as soon as possible. Many market participants interpret this as a slowdown in restrictions and an expected recovery in oil demand. However, the author believes that the dynamic clearing policy may be cautious to a certain extent, so that social and economic activities have not been fully developed as in the past. Therefore, crude oil bulls who are hoping for a strong recovery in demand in mainland China should be alert to the reversal of demand.

Russia’s crude exports rise in March, energy supply outlook continues to focus on talks

According to data from the cruise tracking agency Petro-Logistics, Russia’s marine crude oil exports in March increased by 350,000 barrels per day from February, reaching an average of nearly 3 million barrels per day, while refined oil shipments exceeded 2 million barrels per day in March. day. This appears to be one of the real data supports that Russia’s energy exports will not be disrupted in the short term.

Ilya Spivak, chief analyst for Asia Pacific at DailyFX, said of Russia’s stance in the negotiations (click to see her specific views), “Russia has expanded the scope of this war after its early setbacks, which seem to be mainly after comprehensive Western economic sanctions make it impossible. Try to get more leverage before serious negotiation is avoided.” The author agrees with his point of view very much, and it seems that more leverage and a tougher attitude will create a flexible “compromise” space for Russia in the negotiation, so the energy sanctions against Russia may also be downgraded, especially in Europe and the United States. in the context of high inflation.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The daily chart of crude oil prices showed that oil prices recorded a shooting star pattern on Wednesday before the bulls staged a major comeback on Thursday. Oil prices are currently hovering around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 103.85, and the currently displayed doji pattern suggests a fierce battle between bulls and bears. The important psychological level of $100 acts as an immediate resistance. If the daily closing price is below this, then the resilience of the oil price rebound may be questioned, and the bears may once again challenge the 50% Fibonacci level of 95.95. If this level is taken , then the 90 mark seems to be in jeopardy.

Conversely, if oil prices can continue to stabilize above $100, it will build an upward ladder for the next rally. Initial resistance is at $110, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 113.62. Recovering the latter would mean that the bearish signal from the large black candlestick recorded on March 9 will be cancelled, and it is expected to extend the gains further.

The international oil price staged a major comeback, but the oil supply questioned the resilience of the crude oil rally, why did the oil price inevitably fall

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