Affected by expectations of OPEC’s increase in production and weakening demand, buyers cut their positions, leading to lower international oil prices, and oil prices are facing the possibility of a reversal and decline. As U.S. WTI crude oil stopped falling at $87.00, there is still the possibility of restarting the rise if the bulls further recover $93.00.
The supply and demand relationship in the oil market dominates the trend of international oil prices.
On the supply side, OPEC announced an increase in production at a recent meeting. Although the increase in production was lower than expected, it may accelerate the emergence of a turning point in global inflation. The actions of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries have shaken the foundation of the rise in oil prices.
There are also important changes on the supply side. First, the debate over a possible recession in the U.S. and the world continues, with investors looking to the data for more clues. With the prolonged military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Europe has become the most pessimistic region, suppressing crude oil demand. Second, new mutant strains are affecting the world. The world’s largest crude oil importer and consumer is China. The epidemic in China has impacted crude oil demand, and under the support of recession expectations, it will seriously affect future expectations. The market is waiting for more guidance.
The latest news said that Russia has stopped the supply of crude oil pipelines in Ukraine, and the re-emergence of the supply interruption may boost the short-term oil market sentiment, and it is advisable to pay attention to the development of the situation.
U.S. WTI crude oil has been in a downward channel since the fall of $124.00. Although it fell below the key $93.00, the short-term price may still recover to 93.00 after it stops falling at 87.00. At that time, the false breakout trend will help the bulls regain the initiative.
Focus on the breakthrough of the 87-93 range. If the oil price breaks through 93.00, the downward trend will be interrupted. After hitting the $100.00 mark and holding steady, the bulls will restart the upward trend; in the future, breaking 87.00 will trigger more selling, and the downward trend will continue to look towards 80.00. -81.00.
In terms of strategy, maintain the idea of shock in the 93-87 area, go long above 87.00, and hold short below 93.00. Once the range is broken, it will be decided whether to pursue the next day. It is advisable to wait and see on the day of the breakthrough.
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