There are few important economic data reports on Wall Street this week. Investors mainly focus on the US housing market data and the number of initial jobless claims for the week. Since many people on Wall Street have already started vacations, US stocks will also be closed on Monday (26th). It is expected to drop to the lowest level for the year.
The market trend is still expected to depend on whether inflation shows signs of subsiding, and some investors are pinning their hopes on the Christmas market at the end of the year.
This week’s trading notes (1226-1231)
1. Are there any Christmas quotes?
The most optimistic factor for the stock market this week comes from investors’ anticipation of the “Santa Claus Rally”. The so-called Christmas market comes from the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of next year, which means that it starts from last Friday and ends on January 4 next year.
The S&P 500 gained an average of 1.3% over the period, according to Stock Trader’s Almanac. There’s no agreed-upon clear explanation for the performance, but some theorize that holiday shopping, seasonal optimism and institutional investor settlements may help drive this trend.
2. The latest data on housing prices
Home prices tracked by the Case-Shiller index are forecast to have fallen 1.2% in October, after falling 1.5% in September, which would mark the fourth straight month of declines. On an annualized basis, price gains likely slowed further to a 9.1% rise, compared with a 10.4% rise in September, which would be the slowest annual price increase in more than two years.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) will release pending home sales data for November on Wednesday, and expects sales to fall at least 0.5% in November, compared to a year-over-year drop of more than 30%.