This week enters the super central bank week, the highlight is the decision-making meeting of the US Federal Reserve, Japan, the United Kingdom and Taiwan central bank on Thursday (22nd), and the Markit major economy Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) will be released on Friday (23rd). ) is released, and the market pays close attention to the policy trends and economic situation of various countries.
This week’s trading notes (0919-0923)
1.Fed September interest rate decision, latest economic forecast
This week, many countries have announced interest rate decisions one after another, the most notable being the US Federal Reserve (Fed). After the United States recently announced the unexpectedly stronger consumer price index (CPI) in August, the market has fully digested the possibility of raising interest rates by 3 yards this week, and even called for a rate hike of 4 yards.
Economists interviewed by Bloomberg expect the Fed to send a more hawkish signal this week, suggesting that the high end of the target rate range will rise to 4% by the end of the year, and that the high interest rate level will continue into 2023 and fall back to 3.6 in 2024. %.
Markets will be watching Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s views on the pace of monetary tightening, the resilience of the U.S. economy and how long inflation will last, as will the process of shrinking the balance sheet, with the Fed doubling the size of the balance sheet this month. To $95 billion, analysts worry that the move could hurt market liquidity and weigh on the U.S. economy.
According to the results of a Bloomberg survey, economists expect the Fed to revise down its gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate this year and next year, and revise up its unemployment rate forecast. It was unchanged, but both were above the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
2. Super central bank week debuts
In addition to the US Federal Reserve, central bank interest rate decisions in Taiwan, Japan, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Brazil and other countries will also be announced this week.
It is widely expected by the market that Taiwan’s central bank is expected to continue the practice of raising interest rates by half a size in June on Thursday, with different views on whether to raise the standard; when the global central bank is actively tightening policies, even if the core inflation rate is still higher than the target level, the Bank of Japan It is estimated that interest rates will remain unchanged, and the US-Japan interest rate gap will continue to widen, and the yen may continue to face downward pressure against the US dollar.
Following the largest rate hike in 27 years in August, the Bank of England is expected to continue its strong tightening force this week, raising interest rates by 2 to 3 yards; the Swiss National Bank is expected to join the ranks of raising interest rates by 3 yards, and interest rates are expected to turn positive for the first time since 2014 .
In addition, Brazil’s central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 13.75% this week, but may continue to maintain a hawkish stance next year in order to curb inflation expectations.
3. Markit major economies PMI, US housing market data
Towards the end of the week, IHS Markit will release preliminary PMI readings for Australia, the UK, France, Germany, the euro zone and the US.
Amid growing recession fears, PMI’s new orders, employment and price indicators will help the market understand the latest direction of the boom. In recent months, under the easing of supply bottlenecks and cooling demand, the PMI price index has fallen across the board, but it is still higher than the historical level.
The U.S. will also release housing market data this week, including August building permits, housing starts, and the September NAHB housing market index.