The dollar continued to fall as the U.S. is considering cutting China tariffs and the European Central Bank is set to raise interest rates; a buildup of dollar bulls creates a worrying short-term outlook.
With the U.S. dollar index at103The dollar’s technical picture looks more worrisome as losses extend below the mark. Reports that U.S. President Joe Biden is considering a move to cut tariffs on China to ease inflationary pressures were the latest dollar catalyst. This prompted a moderate increase in risk sentiment in the market, denting demand for the safe-haven dollar.In addition, hawkish comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde further exacerbated the dollar’s losses, as Lagarde has largely pre-committed to7Moon and9monthly rate hike25basis point.
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“Based on the current outlook, we may be out of negative rates by the end of the third quarter.“
That said, since the dollar’s long positions are also large, the greenback is likely to suffer more as long positions get squeezed, especially if the stock market holds steady.Conversely, currently103represents resistance, while short-term support is located at101.28,This is2021year1month to2022year5monthly bull trend23.6%Fibonacci retracement level.Among other major currencies, EUR/USD will watch1.07the area of interest will be1.0750,at the same time,127.00Will be the key for USD/JPY.
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IGClient sentiment points to mixed outlook for EUR/USD
Data Display,67.81%of retail traders are net long, and the retail trader long-to-short ratio is2.11Compare1.Retail traders are less net long than yesterday0.12%less than last week15.26%while retail traders are less net short than yesterday0.94%an increase from last week26.37%.
We generally take a contrarian view of retail trader sentiment, the fact that retail traders are net long suggests the euro/The dollar price may continue to fall.
Positions are more net long than yesterday, but less than last week.Current retail trader sentiment and recent changes have us on the euro/Trading in the U.S. dollar was further skewed toward mixed.
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dollar chart:time of day
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