EUR/USD price, charts and analysis
•U.S. Treasury yields continue to hit multi-year highs.
•ECB looks set to raise interest rates next week75basis point.
As U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, the inflation-fighting rhetoric is back.closely watched2period and10The one-year U.S. Treasury bond yield is currently4.59%and4.165%,about15highest level in years. Recent comments from Fed officials confirm that the central bank will raise interest rates if necessary and for an extended period of time in response to persistent price pressures in the United States. Four Fed officials, Harker, Jefferson, Cook and Bowman, are due to speak later, and they’re likely to add further emphasis to the Fed’s recent rhetoric.
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NewestCME Fedwatchtool shows,11moon2dayFOMCrate hike at meeting75The probability of a basis point is92.3%,12moon14Further rate hikes at the meeting75The probability of a basis point is80%.This will bring the Fed’s target rate to the end of the year4.50%-4.75%.
Next week the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce their latest policy decision, they may raise interest rates75basis point. Europe’s battle with near-double-digit headline inflation continues and the European Central Bank is set to raise interest rates further in the coming months, which should provide some support for the euro.
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EUR/The daily chart of the USD shows how the pair has continued to move lower, recording a series of lower highs and lower lows, a bearish technical setup.The most recent lower low was at0.9537Nearby, pressure is likely, especially if U.S. bond yields continue to climb. If the exchange rate falls below this level,10moon13low of the day0.9632Will be a short-term support level.resistance is at0.9880and then parity, which looks like it will be hard to break through.
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EUR/USD daily price chart 2022year10moon20day
Retail trader data shows,59.27%of retail traders are net long with a ratio of longs to shorts of1.46:1.The number of net long retail traders increased from yesterday13.92%less than last week2.06%the number of net short retail traders decreased from yesterday13.58%an increase from last week9.01%.
We generally take the opposite view of retail trader sentiment, and the fact that retail traders are net long suggests that EUR/The dollar price may continue to fall. The net long position of the position increased from yesterday, but decreased from last week.Current retail trader sentiment and recent changes have us on the euro/The U.S. dollar’s trading propensity was further mixed.
(Nick Cawley, translated by Eunice)
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