The dollar is blocked at the 105 mark, and the fundamentals also lack more powerful stimulus to break through the mark. With the price correction, the correction and decline should be correctly distinguished, and the strategies for treating the two are completely different.
Affected by the easing of Fed officials’ rhetoric on future interest rate hikes, and the market starting to price in the possibility of economic recession, the U.S. employment data also turned negative, the dollar temporarily lost its upward momentum, and the pullback pressure of technical pressure accelerated the decline of the dollar.
Since mid-June last year, the rise of the dollar has been relatively smooth, the long positions have been crowded, and the trend has been lacking necessary adjustments. The next FOMC meeting is still a month away, and this month’s important data is almost out, and the dollar is almost out of cards. The market starts to adjust at this point, which has both advantages and disadvantages for the US dollar. If the adjustment in this round is appropriate, it will still be conducive to future breakthroughs and rises; if the adjustment is excessive, it may turn to a downward trend, so you should keep an eye on it.
As the US dollar falls below 103, the short-term downward momentum is strong. If it falls further below 102.50, it is expected to move towards the 101 level. This is where the 95 support line is located. If it falls below 100, it will test the 100 integer mark. At that time, the dollar’s rise will be greatly affected. threaten.
The important dividing line between the US dollar’s correction and decline is 101. Above this, the fall will remain bullish no matter what, which can be regarded as a correction to the rally, and below 101, the bears will approach 100-99, which is hardly regarded as ordinary. Pullback, because combined with the 105 level, the top building momentum will be more obvious. At this time, we should be alert to the impact of the short-term dollar trend reversal and downward on the medium and long-term trend. The final effective fall below 99 will destroy the upward momentum since point b.
At the same time as the dollar weakens, there will be obvious signals from the fundamentals. For example, the Federal Reserve has adopted unremarkable dovish words, and the European Central Bank and the Bank of England have adopted tough interest rate hike words. Began to hype the ECB and the Bank of England’s rate hike expectations.
In addition to the potential rebound of the euro and the pound, gold is also the focus of attention. The fall in the yields of the US dollar and US bonds provides an excellent opportunity for gold prices to establish a bottom at $1,800.
(by Arthur) Follow me on Twitter @ArthurZ22426704
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