Shares of satellite TV and wireless service provider Dish Network (NASDAQ: DISH) have fallen nearly 35% over the past month, while the S&P 500 is still down about 8% over the same period. The latest drop follows the company’s weak first-quarter 2022 results, which fell short of analysts’ revenue and earnings expectations due to a larger-than-expected loss of pay-TV subscribers. Dish’s revenue for the quarter fell nearly 4% year over year to around $4.33 billion, while earnings fell 31% year over year to $0.68 per share. Dish lost about 462,000 pay-TV subscribers, bringing its total pay-TV subscriber base to about 10.24 million. In addition, the ongoing 5G wireless network construction also hurt Dish’s cash flow, which burned through about $191 million in cash in the first quarter, compared with $729 million in free cash flow last year. Investors didn’t respond too well to lower sales and higher cash burn given rising interest rates and tighter monetary conditions, leading the broader market to shift to stocks with higher cash flow yields.
However, now that DISH stock is down about 35% in the last month, will it continue to decline in the near term, or is it about to rebound? Based on historical performance, DISH stock is likely to rise next month. Of the 17 instances in the past decade of a 21-day decline of 35% or more in DISH stock, 17 of these resulted in a rise in DISH stock over the following one-month period (21 trading days). While the jury is still out, it means that based on historical data, there is a good chance that Dish stock will rise next month. See our analysis of Dish Stock Chance of A Rise for more details.
While DISH stock has fallen sharply recently, there are several peers in the industry that also look like a compelling bet. Check out Dish Peers’ performance on key metrics. You’ll find other valuable comparisons of companies across industries in Peer Comparison.
Calculate “Event Probability” and “Upside Chance” using data from the past ten years
After moving -6% or more in five days, the stock is up 53% of the time in the next five days. After moving -27% or more in 10 days, the stock will rise in the next 10 days in 18% of the time After moving -35% or more in 21 days, the stock will rise in the next 21 days Days are 100% of the time.
This pattern suggests that DISH stock is likely to rise next month.
We value Dish Network stock at about $38 per share, which represents a potential upside of about 70% from the current market price. For more details, see our analysis of Dish Network’s valuation: Expensive or cheap.
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